Tuesday, May 29, 2012

The Fed Climbs a Wall of Worry

By:  Shan Saeed

There's an old Wall Street cliché that says every bull market "climbs a wall of worry." 
This phrase is generally used to describe a situation where the market rises despite the presence of several uncertainties….I am also confused by many other policy making steps by the Federal Reserve. There have been more changes in monetary policy direction during the Bernanke era then at any other time in the modern era of the Fed. Not under Arthur Burns, not under G. William Miller, not under Paul Volcker, not under Alan Greenspan  have there been so many dramatically shifting Fed monetary policy moves. Under Chairman Bernanke there have been significant changes in direction of the money supply growth FIVE different times. Thus, for me, I am not at all surprised at the current stop and go economy. The current erratic monetary policy makes it exceedingly difficult for businessmen to make any long term plans.  Indeed, I find it extremely difficult to give long term advice to some investors, when in short periods I have seen three month annualized M2 money growth go from near 20% to near zero, and then in another period see it go from 25% to 6% .

I am also confused by many of the monetary programs instituted by Chairman Bernanke. For example, Operation Twist. This is not the first time an Operation Twist was tried. The Operation Twist was tried in 1961, at the start of the Kennedy Administration.  A paper was written by three Federal Reserve economists in 2004 that, in part, examined the 1960's Operation Twist.

Here are some the current uncertainties that make up the wall that the market continues to climb.

• The ever-evolving European debt crisis
Spain is currently under the gun as yields on its bonds are rising steeply. The rising bond yields and protests in the streets are reminiscent of Greece two years ago. The problem is that Spain is much too large a country to bailout like Greece. This situation is unlikely to end well but the European's will scramble to do something that will delay a Spanish default or a disintegration of the European Union.
• Iran
Sanctions on Iran continue. These sanctions have never worked on Iran or North Korea for that matter. But for now, government officials will pretend that they have a good chance of working while they privately weight the consequences of military action or simply allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

Debt in USA
The total public debt is now at about $16 trillion, up from $10 trillion in 2008. The debt is spiraling out of control but Washington continues to do nothing. As the election approaches, the Congress is likely to be even more polarized than usual, if that's possible. Some day it will have to face more problems, just not today.

• Slowing global growth
Economies throughout the world are slowing in 2012. Much of Europe is in or on the brink of recession. And the Chinese economy recently posted slower than expected growth.

• High gasoline prices
Gasoline prices at nearly $4 per gallon threaten to choke of the relatively strengthened recovery in the United States. The high prices take a bite out of consumer budgets and hurt spending in other areas. As well, businesses incur higher expenses and have difficulty passing those expenses on to consumers in a still tough environment. The high prices take a toll on profits and hiring.
• Slowing corporate earnings
Corporate earnings have been one of the few bright spots in the economy since the financial crisis. Companies trimmed down and slashed expenses during the recession, as the economy gained some traction and revenues started to grow, corporate earnings skyrocketed and continued to surprise on the upside since 2009. But, the party might be over. Forecasts are for near zero year over year earnings growth in first quarter.

The S&P 500 rallied 32 percent between last October and early April. It has given up a few percent since but it doesn't appear that a significant sell off will occur soon, unless of course one of the aforementioned problems develops into a crisis. The index may sputter for a while but it will likely resume moving higher at some point in the not too distant future.

There is one reason that supersedes all the uncertainties and should propel the market higher – the massive amount of liquidity in the system injected by the Fed through QE, QE2, Operation Twist and near zero interest rates. Its financial suicidal .  Between $2.5 trillion and $3 trillion injected into the system has no place else to go. The economy isn't growing enough so that banks are making a lot of loans or corporation expanding and hiring people. But, the money is finding its way into the market and propping it up. This game won't last forever. But it could last for a while. Get ready for the bloodbath in the global financial markets. 

Disclaimer: This is just a research piece and not an investment advice. All financial transactions carry a  RISK

Tuesday, May 22, 2012



The game is getting messy. Players are going back home. I see blood in the financial markets for the next 2 years. I would not be surprised if JP Morgan meets the same fate like Lehman Brothers in the next 2-years. Euro is still holding on. Countries like Greece, Italy, Spain have become parasites for EURO ZONE. Euro single currency has not crashed or gone bonkers even in these turbulent times. 

Based on a swap-spread-based model, EURUSD should trade around 1.30, but based on GDP-weighted sovereign credit risk EURUSD should trade around 1.00; so who is right and what are the factors that supporting the Euro at higher levels than many would assume (given the rising probability of a Euro-zone #fail and the 0.82 lows from 2000). The main issues confronting the euro single currency is holding back from crashing are 4. The four key reasons for the apparent paradox based on the difference between ECB and Fed 'monetization', the EZ's balanced current account (independent of foreign capital flows), and the high-oil-price induced petro-dollar circulation diversifying into Euros (or out of USD). The final and most telling of factors though is bank deleveraging as European financial entities, who remain under pressure to shrink their balance sheets and re-build capital, have been selling foreign assets. They remain EUR dismal with a year-end target of 1.15 but expect the slide to these levels to be cushioned (absent an imminent break-up) by banks' 'shrinkage'......

Financial markets are starting to price in the risks that the Eurozone may split apart following this month's inconclusive elections in Greece. But the euro, while trading back to this year's lows against the dollar at 1.27-1.28, remains far above its lifetime lows of 0.82 recorded in 2000.

First, the European Central Bank so far has not engaged in outright quantitative easing during the financial crisis. Moreover, while the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England all have cut interest rates to between zero and 0.5%, the ECB's benchmark interest rate remains at 1.0%. In contrast, investors are concerned the Federal Reserve will engage in a third round of quantitative easing. FED will start QE3 soon and Gold prices will moves above mountains. Similarly, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England have also been printing money and buying government bonds.
Second, the Eurozone as a whole runs a balanced current account. Thus it is not dependent on foreign capital inflows to support the value of the euro.

Third, high oil prices have increased the petro-dollars accumulated by central banks and sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, North Africa, Commonwealth of Independent States and Norway. These official investors diversify a portion of their new foreign reserves into Eurozone markets.

And, last, Eurozone banks are under pressure to shrink their balance sheets and rebuild capital have been selling foreign assets. And who will buy these european assets. Asian countries like China, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia and Japan

Disclaimer: This is just a resrach piece and not an investment advice. All financial transactions carry a RISK

By Shan Saeed.
Geology has no borders. East Africa is experiencing one of the highest levels of investment in the world right now — but we're only witnessing the beginning of the new energy market." This was reported in — New York Times
Indian Ocean is flooded with Oil: Very oily area
There is a lot of oil in East Africa and just off the coast in the Indian Ocean. A few years ago, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted their own analysis and concluded: Over 71 billion barrels of crude lay untouched in shallow pockets dotting the East Africa region. These deposits, it turns out, are a mirror image of the Middle Eastern fossil fuel super-system. More specifically, they are a southwestern extension of the Marib-Shabwa and Sayun-Masila Basins that created the Saudi Oil Empire — and gave rise to the world's first and only trillionaire family. US and West allies want OIL. The Americans and the French have large numbers of Special Forces soldiers in Djibouti right next to Somalia. On the surface, they are there to halt piracy. But they're really after the extension of Saudi oil fields which run into Africa. Hillary Clinton, David Cameron, and forty other high-level diplomats met to talk about bringing peace to Somalia and destroying the militants group operating in Africa. A few days before the meeting, the UN raised the African Union force that's on the ground in Somalia from 12,000 to 18,000. The summit followed a surprise visit by British Foreign Secretary William Hague to Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, where he discussed "the beginnings of an opportunity'' to rebuild the country. Britain also appointed an ambassador to the country. Turkey went so far as to set up an embassy.
Earlier this year, I bought my way into a covert meeting of some of the most powerful oil execs in the world. It cost me about $10,000 out of pocket to get there and to make it past security, but I flew commercial. God only knows how many millions the rest of the attendees, many of whom arrived on their private Gulf Streams and Learjets, spent on this week-long meeting.
It happened at the only four-star hotel in Nairobi, Kenya... behind closed doors and away from the prying eyes of the press. And for good reason: This meeting was never supposed to be public information.
However, unbeknownst to the CEOs, COOs, and big-dollar corporate geological consultants who were in attendance in big numbers and I was present there, when the doors of the conference room were shut and latched...
They had intended for that number to be zero, because in the next couple years, the land development deal they were there to finalize will shift the balance of power of the global energy market. But they didn't want anyone to know that just yet. You see, Africa's got a reputation for being a backward, unindustrialized backwater — on a continental scale.
What many don't know, however, is that Western Africa supplies 12% of the world's global annual crude oil demand.  With four OPEC nations inside its borders [Algeria, Angola, Nigeria and Libya] , Africa is second only to the Middle East in terms of membership in this nearly omnipotent cartel. But while North and West Africa crank out almost 6 million barrels of crude per day, East Africa is hardly on the map at all.

All this is about to change forever.. Because not only have major production operations sprung up in the Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo in the last five years, effectively moving the oil frontier east. but major natural gas deposits were confirmed off the coasts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania just last year in 2011.
And as anybody who's studied fossil fuel geology knows, where there is natural gas, there are also crude oil deposits close by. The most compelling evidence that East Africa is holding some of the world's richest fossil fuel resources goes back long before the natural gas strike and the recent expansions in West African production.
Land which is today occupied by Yemen, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and the biggest oil empire of them all, Saudi Arabia.
Discoveries in North and Western Africa began to confirm these suspicions 30 years ago, but it wasn't until last year that Tullow Oil's natural gas strike off the coast of Tanzania finally made it clear to the execs what geologists had known for decades.. East African geology isn't just similar to the geology which gave the Saudi Royal families the legendary Marib-Shabwa and Sayun-Masila Basins. It's the same geology.
Saudi Arabia is quiting Oil Business and moving into SHALE GAS---The game changer in the global energy market.  Saudi Arabia is making huge investment in SHALE GAS (The next revolution in the energy market) amounting to $130 billion which is roughly 3-years Net Income of Exxon Mobil. This investment is coming from the Saudi Royal family. This is absolutely impressive. I really admire the strategic leadership of the Saudi Royal family for analysing this trend and maneuvering in the right direction as the geo/political landscape is changing at a very rapid pace. Most investment banks and hedge funds are placing massive investment in shale gas companies. TIME Magazine has reported on Shale Gas on April 11, 2011 issue and Financial Times reported on May 8, 2011 about the growing importance of Shale Gas globally. 

Now, to the bigwigs at this Nairobi conference, all this news was a mixed blessing. Representing companies that have made some of the biggest discoveries the industry's ever seen over the last thirty years, it's their job to find new oil. And with East Africa, they're about to chalk up another victory — a major one.  However, it will also most likely be the last cheap oil any of them ever find. Because as the world's mainstay oil deposits gradually dry up, the industry has no choice but to start seeking out harder-to-reach pockets of crude. Known oil reserves are declining and IEA has been screaming around the world that Oil is depleting and something must be done.
Evidence of this comes from the vast number of off-shore oil drilling platforms that have popped up in recent years. In fact, while the rest of U.S. production has fallen by 50% since the 1980s, offshore oil production has risen to account for 1/3 of the total national output — double what it was relative to 20 years ago.
On top of that, at an average cost of $100 million, each of these rigs is about 1,000 times the cost of a typical conventional well... and that's before you even factor in the $1 million/day operating overhead. But progress cannot be stopped. And each year, more and more of these platforms are built and positioned.
Leading the charge is the United States, whose own conventional land-based deposits peaked in the 70s. The rest of the oil-producing world isn't far behind. As the easy-to-reach resources are used up, there is simply no alternative but to go farther out to sea, drill deeper, and take more risks. The results of this you and I know personally: rising prices at the pump... rising prices of any goods requiring transportation... rising prices to heat and cool your house.  So a massive, shallow-lying, land-based crude deposit couldn't have come soon enough. And not just for the oil exploration firms — but for all of us who rely on cheap oil.
There is, however, another reason we should consider ourselves all lucky. And it's got nothing to do with geology  and everything to do with the nation hosting the secretive little meeting...
 Investors Are Already Here: Full attendance.
Just to give you an idea of how serious the men at the conference are about setting up shop in Kenya, here's a fact for you:  Kenya is a nation of about 225,000 square miles. Of that, the cartel which took over the Hilton Nairobi will own close to 124,000 square miles. That's more than 55% of the country's total landmass.
Doing that in the United States would require the private leasing and development of all the land west of Omaha, Nebraska. Now remember, this cartel consists of companies as large as 48-billion-dollar Apache...Together, the members are worth well over $150 billion. So if anybody is up for the job, they are.
But here's the really intriguing part:
The Canadian-based oil explorer I've been hinting at this whole time — with a market cap less than 2% of Apache's — has singlehandedly secured over 32,600 square miles of this territory, a full 26% of the total land acquisition — making them the single biggest shareholder in this 124,000 square mile development zone.
Now, I know what you're going to say: So they really don't have exclusive reign over this potentially priceless real estate?  It is  here's where it gets even more interesting.
You see, with a market cap of only $330 million, this exploration company isn't big enough to thoroughly exploit a landmass the size of the state of Indiana.
So to maximize efficiency and profitability, they've partnered with another company that is big enough. Those share values I mentioned don't represent the percentage of the parcel my new pick owns, but rather the royalties they'll be collecting from the production. And as you can see, that figure isn't small.
With rights to as much as 67% of the earnings that come out of this land, this small but brilliantly-run company will literally be sitting back and collecting checks while their partner does all the work.
So who is this mysterious big-name partner? Well, that may actually be the best news of all...Because the company that will developing and managing this massive property on behalf of my new recommendation is none other than $19 billion exploration giant Tullow Oil.
In the world of fossil fuel exploration, sweetheart deals like this come around maybe once in a career...A giant, world-acclaimed outfit doing all the work so that their tiny partner can rake in unheard-of profits. To figure out exactly what kinds of returns you can expect, the math is pretty simple:
At an average royalty rate of 50% on that resource, at today's prices, my company will stand to profit close to $923 billion of this project — almost 3,000 times their current market cap!
But let's do away with any optimism and see what kind of numbers we're dealing with if things don't turn out quite so well:
They overestimated the total deposit by a factor of five. Let's also assume that it will take 30 years for Tullow to produce and refine the resource... Even with 50% royalties, those unrealistically low figures still translate into annual gains equivalent to 20.4 times my company's current total value — or profits of 2,040% each and every year for the next three decades. Sounds incredible, right?
Well, it's not. You see, at the heart of this deal isn't just the land or the incredible partnership with Tullow...It's the management dream team that I've been talkisng about from the start. As I already mentioned to you, they've pulled off record-breaking successes before.
The Lundin Group is averaging returns in excess of 10,600% over a nine-year period! That amounts to annual gains of 1,180% — and it doesn't even account for the shorter hold periods of the three massively-profitable buyouts that this team worked out between 2006 and 2010...
The absolute worst performer of the bunch brought a 1,600% return, while the best made investors $1,173 for every dollar invested! Just imagine... a mere $852 investment in 2002 would be worth $1 million today!  Again, this is not a typo.
So now you know why the $10,000 investment to get into the meeting where I learned this all — before the start of production — was a bargain. Once production begins — and this news hits the covers of the Wall Street Journal and this company's CEO starts getting interviewed by Forbes and Fortune Magazine — the information won't be worth a dime. It's the definition of an explosive opportunity.

Shan Saeed is a financial market economist / commodities expert with 12 years of solid global experience based in Asia Pacific. He has graduated from Uni of Chicago, Booth School of Business, USA and IBA Karachi. He has attended Cambridge Energy group meeting in Houston-March 2010. He can be reached at saeedshan@gmail.com . Blogs at www.economistshan.blogspot.com

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Upside in the energy market: Oil secret at north dakota's bakken pool belt
By Shan Saeed

I think most investors and people in general hae probably heard plenty about North Dakota's Bakken oil pool. After all, investors are aware of this huge development taking place. My job as a financial market economist and wealth protection strategist is to share new investment opportunities that nobody is talking about. So my passion for people in my networking, I call them savvy and strategic gurus to remain ahead of the curve as investors, they need to recognize the incredible potential of this unique shale oil formation... and details on top Bakken oil producers since 2007. Let me share few facts flowing out of the Bakken suggest there is much more light, sweet crude there than previously believed...
I'll to get right to the point. Here are a couple quotes from two of the biggest oil companies in the Bakken, Continental [NYSE: CLR] and EOG Resources [NYSE:EOG]

From Continental's CEO Harold Hamm:
"The latest game changer is the Three Forks lower benches. We've literally found an additional oil saturated reservoir in the Bakken that again, makes this world-class oil play bigger and better."
From Continental's President Jeff Hume:
"I believe we just have a larger petroleum storage system than we previously thought, and the reserves will increase as we get that data in hand, and that will be later this year."
From Continental's Senior VP Jack Stark:
"Continental acquired 6 cores of the entire Three Forks formation in 2011 and discovered there were up to 3 additional layers within the Three Forks formation. The significance of this discovery, and what makes it such a game changer, is that the volume of oil in play for the field almost doubles with these added reservoirs."
And from EOG CEO Mark Pappas:
"... we have more potential upside and growth opportunities than we've previously indicated... we're much more excited than we were a year ago about our remaining Bakken and Three Forks potential."
These insiders are estimating Bakken recoverable oil reserves may be 60% higher than currently thought... And it all has to do with layers. Shale is a sedimentary rock, meaning it is layered. Further exploration keeps turning up deeper layers of oil-producing shale.
At first it was just the Bakken, the upper level. Then they found the Three Forks Formation beneath the Bakken. Together, the Bakken and the Three Forks have around 3.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
More recent drilling revealed the Sanish formation under the Three Forks, which has another 1.5 billion barrels of oil. But now companies are finding more oil below the Sanish level — and they're pretty excited about it. Continental is in the process of selling off other assets and plans to focus all of its future spending on its Bakken holdings. That's right, Continental — the same company that drilled the very first Bakken well in 1995 — is going "all in" on the Bakken.
Knock, Knock: This is Opportunity
The vast majority of investors have never heard of the Bakken. Even those who know about the Bakken don't know that there could be 60% more oil there. This is what you might consider "breaking news." The U.S. Geological Survey is currently reassessing the Bakken's recoverable reserves.
Results are due in 2013, but I guarantee the "whispers" will begin circulating sooner than that. In fact, they may have already started. Oil prices have dropped sharply over the last few weeks as investors are terrified of what the lunatics in Greece will do next... And they've pushed my favorite Bakken stocks down to the point where they trade with P/Es of 7, even 5! If reserve estimates jump 60%, these P/Es would effectively be 3 and 4. But don't worry — those ultra-low P/Es won't last...Happy investment in the energy market
Disclaimer: this is just a research piece and not an investment advice. All financial transactions carry a RISK. 

Friday, May 18, 2012


By Shan Saeed
The financial markets will remain volatile for the next 18 months as Europe continues to bleed and has yet to recover. I see bloodbath in the financial markets, social unrest and investors losing wealth globally. Investors are moving their capital where wealth preservation is considered to be high on agenda. Capital flows where the money is guaranteed a return and safety. Globally, countries are competing to attract foreign capital and investment. Legal framework, political and economic harmony is redefined by the governments to support reforms in their countries. Lately counties from Central Asian Republic are emerging very strongly due to vast resources of energy and agriculture presence. Uzbekistan is benefiting from vast natural resources which are attracting lot of foreign investment in the region. Uzbekistan with a GDP size of $52 bn [ PPP $106 Bn] is booming with GDP expectation to touch 7%. According to economist magazine, Uzbekistan is rated as one of the top countries achieving GDP growth rate of over 5% along with countries from Africa, Asia and South America.  The population of Uzbekistan is just 30 m and youth carries the huge ratio in that percentage. This is a good sign for a country that is just 20 years old and is already in the take off stage of its economic life cycle. The per capita GDP is around $1760 [ PPP $3,550]  expected to grow further as economic boom takes the positive trajectory. Demand from Russia and other neighboring countries have made energy and agriculture products much dearer. High global prices for Uzbekistan’s raw-material exports, including gold, gas and cotton, will drive the economy to the next level of economic prosperity going forward.  I have a very high opinion of the Uzbek people and of the country’s potential. They are motivated, diligent, and well-educated.
Government economic vision:
Behavior is a better indicator than any published remarks. And the government's behavior in regard to economic questions shows that they want to move forward to bring about economic change going forward to compete globally. However, there are erected high barriers to foreign goods to try to boost their own consumer goods and agricultural production and tried to keep their smaller neighbors, most notably Tajikistan, from decreasing their reliance on Uzbekistan for energy and transit. There are few issues that government needs to sort out in order to attract more foreign investment in the country which holds enormous potential. They've taken steps beyond self-sufficiency in recent years and are now trying to push many businesses off of natural gas and to coal or wood to meet their heating and energy needs so they can sell domestically produced natural gas to higher paying foreign customers.

Investment potential:
The potential is good whereby lot of market remain untapped in this region. Uzbekistan is potentially a large market for consumer goods and there are opportunities in manufacturing and resource extraction. However, the government needs to spell out it economic policy in advance to gather interest from local and foreign investors. It is not uncommon for the government to change rules or for officials suddenly to engage in rent-seeking behaviors (often in very passive-aggressive ways that are somewhat unique to Uzbekistan).

GDP Growth Rate:
Most official figures put it between 7% and 9%. I and many other independent economists believe that GDP growth rate will touch 7% this year. Given rises in prices for commodities Uzbekistan produces and exports, the official growth rate is not entirely impossible, but there are many anecdotal indicators that growth in the economy is doing nothing to stave off declines in infrastructure and quality of life in many parts of the country.
Safety of Investment
Particular investments need to be very carefully researched. Very large, high profile investors have done moderately well in recent years. Investor’s confidence is important to get more and more foreign investment in the country. More foreign investors are coming in to take advantage of the huge reserves in energy and agriculture market. The business climate is getting better and financial landscape is getting into a professional mode. Hopefully Uzbekistan will gain economic strength with more local and foreign investment.

Good for the most part. The road and rail lines connecting the major cities and providing access to neighboring countries is pretty good and improving. As far as I know, the electrical infrastructure is fairly decent as well. However, straying too far from the capital or the main arteries, it is easy to find many signs of decay. 

I think energy is probably the area where there are the most opportunities. For whatever reason, there seems to be less turbulence in the energy industry in Uzbekistan. It could be that it is high visibility and profitable enough that it is controlled more closely by the government than other industries. Also, most of the customers and investors have neighboring countries and from countries with fairly stable relations with Uzbekistan's government.

The Uzbek subsidiary of Lukoil Overseas started gas production at the end of 2011 at Dzharkuduk-Yangi Kyzylcha, largest field in the company’s Southwest Gissar block in the Kashkadarya region of  southeastern Uzbekistan.  Initial stage production is projected to reach 39 bcf/year.  The field is in the Amu Darya basin. Operating results at year end were quite profitable. In 2011, seismic surveying and exploratory drilling led discovery of Kyzylbairak-Southeast and Shamoltegmas gas fields and identification of several prospects.

The company matured two other prospects for drilling, and it also confirmed the presence of commercial gas volumes in the unexplored area of large Adamtash field, 50 miles north of the border with Afghanistan.  The next steps are to activate a gas processing facility and place Adamtash and Gumbulak fields on production. The $1.2 billion project to establish output of 565 MMcfd includes drilling more than 40 producing wells, building external power supply lines, a gas gathering and processing system, commercial gas pipeline, condensate pipeline, shift camp, field base, and engineering infrastructure.
In early 2011, Lukoil Overseas started production in an initial operating area in the western part of Shady field in the company’s Kandym-Khauzak-Shady-Kungrad project. The project consists of five wells making a combined 140 MMcfd of gas, production, gathering, and metering facilities, and a 21-km pipeline. Khauzak-Shady cumulative production reached 350 bcf of gas in mid-2011…Huge opportunity exists in the oil market in Uzbekistan for foreign investors.


Agriculture is where Uzbekistan has a lot of untapped potential. Cotton and, to a lesser extent, grains, are still managed by the state with few significant changes from the Soviet period. Fruits, vegetables, etc. that are grown on privately owned plots are governed by more liberal rules. As such, they are very productive and farmers are fairly responsive to the market. I've heard both good and bad anecdotes about making money in agriculture. The Uzbeks have set up an intensive poultry farm and found modest success. There are several other examples of successful farming companies and cooperatives being taken over by elites. So, it's more or less the same as with everything else in Uzbekistan. To successfully invest, a lot of effort has to be put into understanding and constantly mitigating the particular political risks of an investment. Corporate farming is a growing untapped market that provides huge benefit for investors to achieve sustainable profits going forward.

NATO is not just another military alliance. It must be counted as something unique and important in human history—an alliance of democratic states committed not merely to mutual defense but also to the promotion of core democratic values.  NATO’s dealings with Uzbekistan require some careful and critical thought. They are strategic partners in the global alliance of military pact. The growing significance of the northern supply corridor in general and Uzbekistan in particular has increased during recent times.

World Bank Group has entered into strategic Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Uzbekistan, providing the framework for World Bank Group assistance to Uzbekistan between 2012 and 2015.

The new Strategy proposes a program linked to Uzbekistan’s development vision of reaching high middle-income status by mid-century.  It was developed based on a broad dialogue with the Government of Uzbekistan and consultations with all development partners, including civil society organizations, academia, business communities, professional associations, and multilateral and bilateral donors.

Through implementation of the CPS, the World Bank intends to help enhance the key elements of the Government’s medium-term growth and development strategy: promoting efficiency, enhancing competitiveness, accelerating diversification, and ensuring social inclusion. A new financing envelope of US$1.3 billion – consisting of concessional International Development Association (IDA) credits and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loans – reflects the country’s development needs, its income level, economic prospects, economic management, poverty level, and performance of Bank-sponsored programs. It will support projects in the areas of water supply and sanitation, irrigation, energy, transport, and private sectors over the next four years. The Bank will also extend the on-going support for basic services in health and education.

Proposed analytical and advisory services aim to help Uzbekistan prepare a comprehensive sector-wide understanding of future development directions. Horticulture and energy sector strategy development is an example of such engagement. In addition, the CPS envisages a high-level joint strategy development exercise – “Uzbekistan Vision 2030”. This aims to help Uzbekistan define roadmaps to achieve its development goals in collaboration with Uzbek research institutes.

Saturday, May 12, 2012


Beijing gives China’s banks the green light to dump dollars!
This is absolutely unprecedented. China’s central bank has always been able to sell dollars. NOW, EVERY COMMERCIAL CHINESE BANK HAS BEEN GIVEN OFFICIAL FIRST-TIME-EVER APPROVAL TO DUMP AND SELL SHORT THE U.S. DOLLAR!
The dollar devaluation conspiracy I’ve been warning about is about to hit the greenback hard. Here’s what to do IMMEDIATELY ...

You may even recognize my name has been quoted by Financial Times, CNBC, Bloomberg and Islamic Finance News Malaysia and some other major financial program or publication in Singapore, USA and Pakistan

However, what I have recently discovered is something you will NOT hear me (or anyone else) say in any of those venues. I wonder how many people think I’m nuts now! All along I’ve been warning that Beijing and Washington were moving to devalue the U.S. dollar and start lifting the Chinese yuan’s status as an international currency.
And over the last couple of weeks I’ve outlined about every single step that Beijing’s taken to do exactly that, without one single objection coming from our “leaders” in Washington!
But this recent announcement takes the cake: Beijing just gave the country’s commercial banks the green light to dump U.S. dollars — for the first time ever!
Is it any surprise that the U.S. dollar is hovering near record lows against the Chinese yuan, ready to plunge further? I think not! Is it any surprise that the U.S. dollar can’t even rally against Europe’s currency — a currency that everyone knows is doomed? I think Euro is a challenge right now!
My view: If you don’t take the action you need to take now to PROTECT your money and turn this looming, disastrous dollar devaluation to your advantage ...

Get Insurance of your wealth and buy Gold and Silver

Disclaimer: This is just a research piece and not an investment advice. All financial transactions carry a RISK